Matt Williams and Ben Dorries column - 'She can win an Everest': Big call ahead of Group 1 Robert Sangster Stakes
Every Thursday, News Corp Australia's national racing editor Matt Williams and senior racing writer Ben Dorries chat all things horse racing.
MW: Benny, what's your take on Amelia's Jewel? I wrote a piece Sunday saying the jury is out. Some thought I was too harsh, but she avoided the stars in Melbourne and Sydney, targeted The Quokka several months out, and was playing at home. She ran well, but her $101 stablemate, Petula, was only two lengths behind her. AJ is an A-Grader, but she's yet to prove she's elite. Let's see how she goes in The Goodwood (a great get for Adelaide), which will be even tougher. 1200m again, though? You only need to look at Zougotcha and Think About It to see what happens when horses race out of their right distance range.
BD: My thoughts are you don't need a long neck to be a goose. I'm talking to you, Matty. Fair dinkum. She isn't a sprinter, and the only reason she ran in The Quokka was because it's a $5m race on her own patch. Even Damian Lane said she wants 1400m-1600m. She didn't run poorly to finish runner-up, in fact, she ran well in a race won by the reigning Quokka champ Overpass, a proven top level sprinter. Simon Miller is a great bloke, but you aren't on his Christmas card list. I loved how he handled the media attention, including your piece, with humour. He tweeted a video of Overpass, who'd been staying in his stable, and said he wouldn't let him get back on a plane heading east. The video zoomed in on Overpass's bum and Miller said that was all he'd seen of Bjorn Baker's sprinter in races in Perth. Funny stuff.
Everyone has been running a poll this weekend, so here's ours...
What do you think, stable transfer for Overpass? pic.twitter.com/iLoeewfM0T
- Simon Miller Racing (@Simon_Miller_) April 23, 2024
MW: So, everyone says she's not a 1200m horse, but lets run her over 1200m again third-up, carrying 56.5kg - only 0.5kg less than Black Caviar did to win The Goodwood in 2012. Speaking of great banter (apologies, Team AJ!), how funny was Tony Ottobre's crack at J-Mac about his ride on Via Sistina in the Queen Elizabeth? Racing is very insular so people are often too scared to say anything to upset others, but our sport needs more theatre. All eyes will be on Pride Of Jenni vs. Via Sistina in the spring. Being the competitive beast J-Mac is, he'll want revenge.
Hey Macca don't sook up because you got beaten by an Irish jumps jockey, he has more balls than you, waiting for a cart on a $5.5mill horse is pretty piss week, next time have a crack 🤓 pic.twitter.com/kvHxSj5B6j
- Tony Ottobre (@tony_ottob53002) April 22, 2024
BD: It happens all the time in the footy codes. Verbal stirring and banter only adds to the occasion. Whether you agree or disagree with Tony, it's a great talking point and will be the topic of plenty of pub debates in the lead-up to spring. I've already said Pride Of Jenni was way too good in the Queen Elizabeth and nothing would have beaten her, regardless of jockey tactics. Bring on the spring.
MW: It's all happening in my home town of Adelaide the next three Saturdays with four $1 million Group 1s. Plenty of South Aussies threw their toys out of the cot when we had a crack about the quality of their Group 1s last year, but look what a bit of constructive criticism can do. We, and many others, said $500,000 prizemoney wasn't enough for their Group 1s. They now have better fields and some of the best jockeys in Australia - including No.1 J-Mac - will be there Saturday. Money talks. Good on Racing SA, the South Australian Jockey Club, and SA Government for fixing it. The truth hurts, but their carnival is relevant again.
BD: Good to see you and your fellow Croweaters up and about. Kudos also to Sportsbet who are heavily involved in the Adelaide carnival and have put their money where their mouth is.
MW: In the Robert Sangster, the horse you've identified as one of our next sprinting stars, Estriella, will be very hard to beat. I've tried to find something to beat her, but she could be one out of the box. You only need to listen to Ciaron Maher and Blake Shinn to know how much they rate her. Mark Zahra takes over because Shinn can't make 54½kg. The barrier looks nasty, but there isn't a great deal of speed so she should be able to get across reasonably easily. She's a monster, and I think she just wins. Benedetta and Zapateo are the dangers. Both are quality animals in good form, and have drawn well.
BD: Estriella could start from the next suburb and still win. She oozes class, and she'll give them a proper thumping. The $3 available on Australia's next racing superstar is money for jam. Don't be surprised if she's a future The Everest winner - if not this year, next year. Chips in, Estriella.
MW: The Australasian Oaks has plenty of form lines colliding. Wings Of Song was super impressive last start, and is shooting for her seventh straight win. Concello's form behind Australian Oaks winner Autumn Angel looks outstanding. After watching her replays, former Kiwi Pulchritudinous has a big motor. She's very good. Given their odds, you can back all three and make money. I'll stake 40 per cent on Wings Of Song ($6), and 30 per cent on Concello ($8) and Pulchritudinous ($8.50).
BD: I'll leave the tipping to you on this one. But, why is an Oaks run over 2000m? Ridiculous. I reckon the Oaks in Brisbane is also 200m too short - and it's 2200m. It's the reason Peter Moody will probably race Autumn Angel over 2400m in the Group 1 Queensland Derby, rather than the Oaks.
MW: The Queensland Winter Carnival is almost here. The Doomben 10,000 on May 18 is shaping as a great race with Overpass and I Wish I Win clashing. Reigning Everest champ Think About It is also returning to defend his Kingsford Smith Cup crown. Don't lose faith. He'll bounce back if he's kept in the 1200m-1400m range.
BD: After a week in the wild west, I'm heading to the central Queensland beef capital of Rockhampton this weekend for the $775,000 slot race, The Archer. It's been a springboard for winter carnival success (Apache Chase ran second in The Archer in 2022 before winning the Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup a start later). This Sunday, something would have to go horribly wrong for Ed Cummings-trained favourite Strait Acer to get rolled. It almost looks like a put in, take out job for punters.
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